Taiwan Joining CPTPP: find out what it means to Xi
I was approached by a Chinese spy on LinkedIn. I know that sounds like the opening scene from a lousy espionage film but it happened to me and, as it turns out, potentially thousands of other people working for the UK government. What is more, it was revealed over the weekend that a researcher in Parliament and another man have been arrested on suspicion of spying for China.
In my case the person was based in Shanghai and claimed to be working for a think tank looking at UK-China relations and offered me part-time work. Their message also implied that we had met before but I’m not sure if they were actually claiming that as part of a ruse or if it was simply due to his poor English. Interestingly their profile showed that we had the same former employer. I did not list my former roles on my profile so that did make me wonder if this was part of their tactics and, if so, how did they know that I had worked for that organisation. If it was – and not simply a coincidence – then it was perhaps a more sophisticated approach than I would otherwise have thought as it would mean they had information about me which I had not shared publicly. Apart from this I thought it was a pretty sloppy approach and it was obvious that he was a spy. Unfortunately there have been instances of people falling for these tactics and potentially compromising the UK’s security.
While it should obviously concern us, the fact that the Chinese government is spying on British government officials and people working in Parliament is hardly surprising and is actually one of the least objectionable things it does. It detains dissidents, has crushed democracy in Hong Kong, and is committing genocide in Xinjiang.
Despite this, the UK government’s approach to China is muddled to say the least. The government is obviously in a difficult situation given the economic and military might of China so it’s important to not antagonise it. However, the UK should take a stance in one area in particular: Taiwan.
As China’s economic outlook continues to deteriorate then we should expect to see more sabre rattling from Beijing towards Taipei. We have seen with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine what happens if the West starts granting concessions to hostile states. The UK should use its trade policy to stand resolutely with Taiwan.
Taiwan is a member of the WTO and has entered into Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with a number of countries. Therefore, trade policy is less high stakes and easier to achieve than other potential diplomatic levers such as pushing for it to have a seat at the UN (something we should still do, despite the difficulties involved) but still sends an important message to China and the world.
The first step would be to begin negotiations for a FTA between the UK and Taiwan. The UK already has a good trading relationship with Taiwan but this could be increased further through a trade deal. This would be a good thing for the UK businesses being granted greater market access in Taiwan and would also be beneficial for firms and consumers in the UK as they will be able to access more goods and at a cheaper price.
Crucially, it could give the UK greater access to the chips manufactured in Taiwan which are essential for so many products in the UK. Many commentators have argued that the UK should become less reliant on Taiwan for chips due to concerns over Chinese influence. While I agree that the UK should be diversifying its supply chains it certainly should not be reducing trade with Taiwan. Rather, it should demonstrate that the UK and the West will not tolerate any Chinese invasion of Taiwan while also weakening China’s influence over Taiwan and undermine its hegemony in East Asia.
It should do this by supporting Taiwan’s application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). As the newest member of CPTPP the UK government should use its influence to persuade the other members to expedite Taiwan’s accession. Not only will this bring economic benefits to Taiwan and the other nations in CPTPP, it will reduce China’s influence further. China has applied to join the bloc but this will be refused by the UK. If the United States can be persuaded to sign up then it will be a truly significant trade bloc in Asia-Pacific and around the world.
The UK should also seek to strengthen ties with other nations, especially India. A closer relationship with India has the potential to not only bring significant economic benefits to the UK, it will also move India away from China’s (and Russia’s) sphere of influence.
None of this should be seen as punishing China. The aim should be to deter aggression and to bring China fully into the global economic community by embracing free and fair trade, human rights, and the rule of law. China’s economy has recently taken a hit and so the UK and other nations applying extra pressure in this way has the potential to finally get China to embrace the rules based international trading system. This was the promise of China joining the WTO in 2001 (while also inspiring the best Star Wars film).
Unfortunately over the past two decades it has failed to live up to that promise by repeatedly engaging in human rights violations, economic coercion, and unfair trading practices. China has made huge progress over the past few decades by opening its economy and embracing international trade. There are countless people alive today in China who would not have been thanks to the reforms in the 1970s. It still has a long way to go but a China which truly embraces free trade will not only be good for the people of China but the whole world.
It is incredibly important that the UK clarifies its stance on China by taking a pragmatic but firm approach to it. This should be achieved by using its trade policy to strengthen links with Taiwan. Doing so will strengthen the UK’s economy, reduce China’s influence in East Asia, deter Chinese aggression, and encourage China to embrace free and fair trade.