CPTPP: Find out what it means to me

And why the Phantom Menace is the best Star Wars film

Turmoil has engulfed the Galactic Republic. The taxation of trade routes to outlying star systems is in dispute. Hoping to resolve the matter with a blockade of deadly battleships, the greedy Trade Federation has stopped all shipping to the small planet of Naboo.

That, if you are unaware, is how Star Wars: Episode 1 - The Phantom Menace starts. I remember going to see it in the cinema with my older brother and I must have been 10 at the time. It was the first Star Wars film I’d ever seen and I absolutely loved it. It has been unfairly maligned and I’d go far as to say it is the best film in the entire series. The lightsaber battles are incredible, the podracing is exciting, it has a great plot, and ‘Duel of the Fates’ by the brilliant John Williams is currently providing the soundtrack to me writing this post. It’s just a shame about Jar Jar Binks…

Anyway, I write all this because one of the reasons that the film is maligned is because of the focus on the political discussion about trade which people apparently don’t like. Therefore, it was surprising to see ‘0.08% to GDP’ trending on Twitter yesterday. It was of course in reference to the fact that the negotiations for the UK joining CPTPP have been finalised with all the parties reaching an agreement in the early hours of Friday morning.

The reason it had caused quite a stir is because, for the most part, those either praising or disparaging the deal were divided down Brexit (will it ever end) lines. Those on the Leave side were arguing that it was a great win for Brexit Britain and left the EU in the mud. Those on the Remain side were keen to point out that it has a tiny economic benefit and that the UK must have got a bad deal because it is now outside of the EU. 

I wrote a short piece on this yesterday for City AM where I explain that while it’s true that the economic benefits are modest, the UK joining CPTPP is a good thing. You can read it here.

It’s a shame that a trade issue was trending for the wrong reasons. International trade really is fascinating as it’s the perfect mixture of economics, law, politics, and international relations. It’s incredibly technical and nerdy at times, but it has a major impact on our everyday lives. What is more, when disputes are not resolved then they can lead to trade wars and even actual wars (Phantom Menace actually stems from anxieties in the US over the rise of Asian economies and China joining the WTO which it did two years later).

International trade helped to make the UK rich. Trade liberalisation over the past 50 years has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and there are countless people alive today because their governments opened up their economies and embraced free trade.

Unfortunately the free trade agenda is on the decline. It’s great that the UK is pursuing free trade, but as William Atkinson points out for Conservative Home, the UK is something of an outlier in all this. The WTO has been reinvigorated due to the efforts of Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, but is still in many ways moribund and not fit for purpose. Moreover, Joe Biden is an improvement over Donald Trump in pretty much every way, apart from trade. His Inflation Reduction Act is not only an unfortunate initialism, it is also incredibly protectionist. He has no intention of taking the US back into CPTPP and has no real interest in striking a free trade deal with the UK. I’ve written before why this isn’t a major issue and why it’s not a snub, but it’s still far from ideal.

Then there is CPTPP itself. It’s a good thing that the UK has joined, but the fact that the economic gains are so modest highlights a weakness with modern free trade agreements. One of the reasons why the economic benefits are small is because FTAs tend to focus on tariff elimination and trade in goods. They do very little to tackle non-tariff barriers to trade or trade in services. 

All of this is a real shame given just how important free trade is. Any future trade deals the UK strikes should focus on services and tackling non-tariff barriers. WTO reform all needs to be a priority for the UK and the rest of the liberal world. Unfortunately, I don’t see the latter happening anytime soon.

I played a very small role in the UK joining CPTPP and was involved in the pre-negotiations and planning the launch. I wanted to call the publicity around it ‘CPTPP: Find out what it means to me’ but that was thwarted by the so-called Powers That Be. Credit needs to go to all the officials, negotiators, advisers, ministers, and all four Secretaries of State who put in the hard work over the years.

I’ll probably write something else on CPTPP next week when I’ve had a chance to look through the details. I won’t be doing that today though as it’s Saturday (I’m not Sam Lowe) and tomorrow it’s my birthday where I’ll be turning [REDACTED].